Is it over for the PC?

[tim_from_pa]

Of course I look at PC from the hardware end, and an ol' guy like me always built his PC's and loaded whatever I wanted on them. But besides all the software directions over the years, I do get a little concerned that the good, old clunky tower or desktop is on it's way out, and all that is left are "devices" all sealed up in one package --- there's nothing to be put together any more. It's all one piece now. :lol: It's the start of a new generation of hardware, but the end, maybe, of tinkerers and do-it-your-selfers. BTW, PC is technically short for "personal computer" and does not designate the operating system, but since Microsoft had the market it's been associated with them. In that regard, even a Mac is a "PC". But most, or I should say all the other operating systems are gravitating to the device market anyway. But being older I don't mind being nostalgic and having that clunky desktop on my desk. Maybe now's the time to buy a tower cheap and then load whatever I want on it before they don't make them (or sell the parts) any longer.

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2013/04/16/windows-its-over-tech-site-declares/?intcmp=features

 

[HammerStone]

I've wondered about this myself. I work in the IT industry and my line of eLearning work requires that I work with products for PCs, laptops, tablets and mobile phones. The issue that I think retains the relevancy of the PC is that there are just some enduser experiences that require larger screens and processing power. I realize that with the exponential theory (reality) of growth, the latter is less of an issue, but I don't see 24" laptops on the horizon anytime soon until they come up with something far more advanced. Having to hook up an external monitor each time becomes a little too involved, I think, as well.

I think the PC market continues to shrink as the average user moves to laptops and (to a lesser extent) tablets. However, I don't see niche totally going away until something that does not yet exist comes out and makes larger mobile/portable displays more viable.

As to the remainder of it - all I can reply is that geeks are geeks and part of what makes geeks...geeks...is that we like to take things apart and understand them. I am not a huge hardware person, but it's difficult to imagine that the geeks won't adapt. If Apple, etc. get their way of integrated components, either open source develops its own computer hardware or smaller companies arise to profit off of a niche.

 

[tim_from_pa]

You have a good point, Hammerstone. It's rather reassuring. I never thought of the "workplace" factor as they are inclined to use such "clunky" hardware as I call it. And yes, there's probably nothing on the horizon soon to replace it as I cannot imagine a little iPad running my machine (someone may step on it or lose it by accident) :lol:

For that reason, I suppose the larger hardware will be here for awhile, albeit maybe in scaled-down form for more specific applications, and perhaps a tad more expensive because of this. Places like TigerDirect will probably hold on to selling that kind of hardware as along as possible since they don't want to lose business either. If it were to all disappear tomorrow, I could get by as long as there were laptops yet as at least the screens and keyboards are normal PC sizes yet. And for sure laptops will be with us for awhile yet.

 

[rockytopva]

Steve Ballmer... If I had to put another character in the picture it would be of some lazy looking kid day-dreaming out the window, and I would label him 'Microsoft.' Anymore OS's like Windows 8 and it may indeed be over for the PC!

 

[HammerStone]

Rocky, I used that image for a presentation at work a couple weeks ago.

Did ya'll see where Windows 8.1 beta is adding in a feature for going back to the old start menu format? I don't think the fat lady has quite sung; even OSX still offers a traditional format.

For that reason, I suppose the larger hardware will be here for awhile, albeit maybe in scaled-down form for more specific applications, and perhaps a tad more expensive because of this. Places like TigerDirect will probably hold on to selling that kind of hardware as along as possible since they don't want to lose business either. If it were to all disappear tomorrow, I could get by as long as there were laptops yet as at least the screens and keyboards are normal PC sizes yet. And for sure laptops will be with us for awhile yet.

I think you'll see mini-PCs sure like Mac Mini and scaled down Windows versions for home users that need it/want it. I think you'll have a secondary market for traditional PCs because there will still be money to be made.

 

[dripping yellow madness]

I got to use someting called a chromebook from google. it was really neat and FAST!!! I though I was in a racecar HAHA!!

 

[AndyBern]

The next time I buy an OS from Microsoft is when they re-release XP or 2000.

 

[Mungo]

I'm sure tablets will become more widespread but there is still a place for the desktop PC. For one thing my eyesight isn't what it used to be and I find a keyboard and a big screen better to work with. I have a little netbook but it's really only for when I travel.

Desktops are also cheaper for the same power and facilities. And I think gamers will want the power that a desktop can provide at a reasonable price.

 

[rockytopva]

Just a little Photoshopping on this one.

 

[biggandyy]

Fixed more... ;)

 

[Polt]

There's nothing portable to replace my mechanical split-keyboard, 24" screen, and speakers hitting a loud 20Hz. And, for now, portable speed still falls short of desktop speed.

Quickly fading are the good days when putting something together could save you ton of money while blowing away anything that uses a battery. And, as we are distanced from the metal (especially in terms of using a computer), computers becoming less interesting.

 

[Arnie Manitoba]

I replaced my desktop with a Toshiba Qosmio portable .... it's like a "big laptop" .... 17.3" screen ..... more power than a desktop ..... multi task at the speed of a madman for those who crave extreme performance (words from their own literature)

I really like it ..... I dont take it out of the house too often , but nice to have the option .

Batteries only good for 60-90 minutes because of the powerful processors so has some limitations .

Otherwise .... it is the best of both worlds for me.

 

[Axehead]

Mobility and Cloud are very big today. My son who is graduating from high school and does not want a Windows PC. He wants a laptop with Ubuntu Linux. He says most of his friends are saying Windows 8 stinks. I see mobility and cloud continuing to grow and along with Big Data and In Memory computing many will be using handheld mobile devices to connect to the backend servers. The handheld tablets will continue to get better and in fact many can be used by with a bluetooth keyboard. Dell is selling and I think because they know something that they better sell fast. To their credit they are going to start selling Linux on their PCs again, but I think Michael Dell is still going to sell. He sees the writing on the wall. If he wasn't so Windows centric he could sign some licensing agreements with Google for Android.

 

[Mungo]

I’m not sure about Laptops. I think computing might fall into two groups.

Firstly the “fixed” home computer with a big screen, or linked up to an HD television. It’s flexible and powerful.

Secondly the mobile tablet/phone with its high portability and availability wherever you are.

To my mind laptops are looking like a compromise that doesn’t really satisfy either.

But who knows. Things change so fast. It doesn’t seem many years ago when the first tablets came out. First they were hailed as the future, then they didn’t live up to the hopes and were dismissed as a dead end. Now just look at them.

It’s very difficult to predict the future. We tend to project from what we know and reckon it’s going to be the same but better and faster. But new technologies come from where we aren’t looking and catch us by surprise.

Have you ever heard of disruptive technologies?

An existing technology (known as a sustaining technology) gradually improves and gets cheaper over time. But eventually it reaches a standard that is above what most people want, even some power users. That’s where the desktop PC is now, and has been for a long time.

Then along comes a new technology. This new technology is nowhere near as good as the old one but it is perhaps cheaper or useful in some way, although of lower quality and not overall as useful. However in time it improves and displaces (disrupts) the old technology. That’s probably where tablets were, but they are becoming (or perhaps have become) sustaining.

Usually these disruptive technologies come from new innovative companies rather then the big established ones that dominate the old. There is a reason for this. The new technology is inferior and limited in its market when it is introduced and therefore not attractive to the big firms important major customers and won’t sell in the quantities that makes it worth while to them.

 

[Polt]

To my mind laptops are looking like a compromise that doesn’t really satisfy either. ...

An existing technology (known as a sustaining technology) gradually improves and gets cheaper over time. But eventually it reaches a standard that is above what most people want, even some power users. That’s where the desktop PC is now, and has been for a long time.

A real keyboard is still required for serious use of a computer, even on a portable computer. We'll see tablets and laptops merge, with the only difference being an attachable keyboard.

There's no such thing as too much power. But, most people don't see it my way, so Intel's next chip is designed to sip power rather than to burnup benchmarks. Game consoles use to be designed with cutting-edge graphics, but the Playstation 4 will be released with performance equivalent to only a mid-range gaming PC, which isn't saying much as PCs having gone very far in the last few years.

 

[Mungo]

Resurrected this thread because I have just got an Andoid OS tablet for my birthday.

Although I'm still getting to grips with a totally different OS and way of working, my first impression is that it's got a lot of growing up to do to rival a proper PC. Mainly that is down to the Android OS.

You could compare Windows to a mature adult and Android to a young teenager. Basically Android is a phone OS that struggling to manage when it's put onto a Tablet.

It's got a lot missing for an OS, and the Apps, like Firefox and Chrome (for example) are just not up to the standard of their grown up Windows versions. My main beef at the moment is file associations. On Android they are dire.

I can see it's great for carrying around, and fun stuff like music and games but I'm not sure not up to any serious computing. I was hoping it would replace my netbook for occasional use and when on holiday but I can't see it doing that yet.

Any one else got an Android Tablet & if so what do you think about it?

 

[HammerStone]

I actually develop for them at my place of work. Unfortunately, as much as I love Android - I have both a Galaxy S3 (phone) and Nook tablet - the OS suffers from being too fragmented in the marketplace. Unlike Windows and iOS/Mac OSX, Android does not have a single release version. Each vendor has their version of Android which yields dozens of differences across the various hardware providers.

Android is much more difficult to develop for, both because of the difference in each vendor's flavor of Android and the varied screen size. Essentially, with Android development you're catering to many different versions (some devices **still** run Android 2.3.x, whereas the current version is 4.3/4.4) and then you have the added bonus of varying pixel densities and other details. What you generally get with this development environment are apps that run okay on a wide variety of Android devices but that don't work fluidly across device versions.

Basically, it comes down for designing for the most popular vendors and then hoping the remainder work out to an acceptable level. For instance, my S3 displays as the same resolution as a tablet, but then my old phone displayed a more typical phone resolution.

Unfortunately, this status will continue to hold back Android from growing up as much.

With all that said, I don't know that a tablet as we know it (even inclusive of the iPad) will ever replace a good laptop or desktop for me.

 

[Mungo]

That sounds a little bit like the problem of designing web sites for all the different browsers and versions of browsers, different screen resolutions etc. (including crappy ones like IE6) :)

 

[HammerStone]

Take that problem on steroids Mungo and you have Android. ;)

It's still my favorite OS to use, but I'm not in love to develop for it quite yet.

 

[Doug_E_Fresh]

I think one of the hardest things to balance in order to remove towers and laptops, Is power consumption and processing power. It's very difficult to get the same performance out of a device with a battery rather than something plugged into a wall. Until we have something that's as revolutionary as Telsa describes,

"I obtained convincing evidence of the feasibility of wireless power transmission on a vast scale for all industrial purposes.

The chief discovery, which satisfied me thoroughly as to the practicability of my plan, was made in 1899 at Colorado Springs, where I carried on tests with a generator of fifteen hundred kilowatt capacity and ascertained that under certain conditions the current was capable of passing across the entire globe and returning from the antipodes to its origin with undiminished strength. It was a result so unbelievable that the revelation at first almost stunned me. I saw in a flash that by properly organized apparatus at sending and receiving stations, power virtually in unlimited amounts could be conveyed through the earth at any distance, limited only by the physical dimensions of the globe, with an efficiency as high as ninety-nine and one-half per cent."

I don't think we're going to have an ability to just have "Devices".