Coronavirus spreading

[reformed1689]

I can't believe you wrote that. What about people who have it but aren't tested? Would you say it doesn't matter if you are around contagious people because "only positive tests matter"? Some people may have mild cases but can still infect others.

I read Tom Hanks and his wife caught it in Australia. Their son says neither of them are severely sick. That's good; but it's also good they got tested. Now they can avoid giving to other people; and if they start to feel worse, doctors would know what was going on.

What does this have to do with what I was talking about? Read the flow of the conversation. We are talking about the CDC removing number of tested people from their site. Who cares about how many negative tests there were? It is irrelevant.

 

[reformed1689]

It's just telling that the CDC is no longer giving us the number of people being tested. Which was the original point.

I will concede I misread your original point. But why does it matter? Why do we need to know the number of people tested that did not have the virus? How does that information help at all?

 

[reformed1689]

What about people who have it but aren't tested? Would you say it doesn't matter if you are around contagious people because "only positive tests matter"?

The CDC wouldn't be reporting that anyway would they? There is no way to know about people who have it but are not tested.

 

[Justadude]

What a debacle. Trump gives his address, says he's banning all travel to and from Europe for 30 days. But then says the UK is exempt, even though the virus is there too. He also said the ban would apply to "trade and cargo" between the US and Europe, but soon thereafter the WH had to issue a "clarification" that there was no ban on goods. Then the WH has to issue another clarification, this time that the ban doesn't apply to US citizens or permanent residents, meaning Americans can still fly back and forth to Europe, which completely undermines whatever protections the ban would have had!

And now today we learn that Trump is holding off on declaring a national emergency (which would free up funding pathways) because he's concerned that doing so would contradict his earlier message that this is no worse than the flu. Oh but don't worry! Trump will make a decision on that once Jared Kushner "presents his findings". Jared Kushner??!!

I swear you can't make this stuff up.

 

[Giuliano]

The CDC wouldn't be reporting that anyway would they? There is no way to know about people who have it but are not tested.

Of course they wouldn't be reporting how many people weren't tested. What does that have to with what you said? "Only positive tests matter." Negative tests matter too, and the number of tests matter.

The whole purpose of the test is to figure out who has it and who doesn't. You go into the situation not knowing and wind up knowing. The number of people getting tested is important. The more people with symptoms who get tested means the more people get diagnosed early.

It looks to me as if the CDC doesn't people to know how many are being tested to conceal the sloppy way things are being handled. If they told the truth, people would know not enough test kits are available to test everyone who should be tested. That's what it looks like to me.

South Korea has a lot of cases, but it would have been worse if they hadn't tackled things as early as they did.

How this South Korean company created coronavirus test kits in three weeks - CNN

By January 24, the scientists had ordered the raw materials they needed for the test kits. Four days later, they arrived. On February 5, the first version of the test was ready.

Meanwhile the CDC and the Trump administration were twiddling their thumbs.

Seegene is one of four companies providing coronavirus test kits in South Korea.

But the company is also facing international demand from about 30 countries -- including Italy and Germany -- which are using Seegene's products, Chun said.

At first, Seegene struggled to meet demand, but now it is coping.

The firm is making about 10,000 kits a week and each kit can test 100 patients. So it is making enough to test one million patients each week, at a cost of under $20 per test.

In the US, companies were asking for approval to manufacture kits and were told to fill out paperwork. And no one knows what these companies may charge for a test.

Many private labs want to do coronavirus tests. But they're still facing obstacles and delays.

Even though the federal government has reassured the public that millions of tests for the coronavirus are on the way, many private laboratories in the U.S. still aren't able to conduct their own tests, in part because of a demanding government approval process, leading lab experts and industry groups say. . . .

One hospital lab says it could have performed thousands of tests by now. The delays — which have also been driven by a shortage of materials and lack of information from the federal government about how much labs will be reimbursed — have prolonged waiting times to diagnose infected patients while the virus has spread further, according to lab directors and public health experts.

Private labs have been in touch with the Department of Health and Human Services since mid-January about developing their own tests, according to the American Clinical Laboratory Association, which represents commercial and hospital labs. But the federal government didn't issue new rules speeding the approval process for commercial, research and academic labs until Feb. 29.

There are still shortages in several sections of the US.

Until recent days, the vast majority of tests were being conducted by the CDC or public health labs, which have limited capacities. On Monday, CDC Director Robert Redfield said about 4,900 people had been tested by government labs. But there still aren't enough tests to meet demand in many parts of the country, local officials and public health experts say. (South Korea, by comparison, says it has tested more than 200,000 people since early January, with the capacity to test 15,000 people a day.)

Adding insult to injury, HHS Secretary Azar deliberately tried to mislead people.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar denied that there has been any shortage. "We have always been able to meet the full demand for test orders from public health officials," Azar said during a public appearance Tuesday.

"At no point has a request for a test from a state or local public health department been denied by CDC, and at all times CDC has had capacity to run these tests, either itself or through other CDC public health reference labs," Azar said, adding that 1.1 million tests had been shipped to public and private labs by the end of last week and that 4 million tests would be produced by the end of this week.

So maybe your public health nurse could get some test kits, but what about doctors and hospitals?

 

[marks]

Letter from Toronto: An Infectious Diseases Specialist Reflects on COVID-19

Very Important . . . I thought I'd post the entirety . . .

Letter from Toronto: An Infectious Diseases Specialist Reflects on COVID-19

March 10, 2020 by Letter to Editor

Email
Editor’s Note From the pages of Facebook:

I’m a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I’ve been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria…there is little I haven’t been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they ” probably don’t have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know…” and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games…that could be kiboshed too. Can you even imagine?

I’m scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I’m scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, open-mindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and “fight for yourself above all else” attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let’s meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.

Our children will thank us for it.

Dr. Abdhu Sharkawy

 

[Giuliano]

What a debacle. Trump gives his address, says he's banning all travel to and from Europe for 30 days. But then says the UK is exempt, even though the virus is there too. He also said the ban would apply to "trade and cargo" between the US and Europe, but soon thereafter the WH had to issue a "clarification" that there was no ban on goods. Then the WH has to issue another clarification, this time that the ban doesn't apply to US citizens or permanent residents, meaning Americans can still fly back and forth to Europe, which completely undermines whatever protections the ban would have had!

And now today we learn that Trump is holding off on declaring a national emergency (which would free up funding pathways) because he's concerned that doing so would contradict his earlier message that this is no worse than the flu. Oh but don't worry! Trump will make a decision on that once Jared Kushner "presents his findings". Jared Kushner??!!

I swear you can't make this stuff up.

I think the goods on ships and planes would have some people on them too.

Was there any stock market index he didn't crash? I imagine he has leaders around the world furious with him. Is he trying to get the whole world to hate him?

Story: Global stocks plunge as coronavirus fears spread

 

[reformed1689]

Negative tests matter too, and the number of tests matter.

Why? Why do us knowing those numbers matter?

It looks to me as if the CDC doesn't people to know how many are being tested to conceal the sloppy way things are being handled. If they told the truth, people would know not enough test kits are available to test everyone who should be tested. That's what it looks like to me.

This is just pure speculation on your part. They actually gave the reason they aren't updating those numbers. It is because it is now being handled by individual states. You can get that information from the states directly. This is not some crazed conspiracy.

 

[reformed1689]

Very Important . . . I thought I'd post the entirety . . .

Letter from Toronto: An Infectious Diseases Specialist Reflects on COVID-19

March 10, 2020 by Letter to Editor

Email
Editor’s Note From the pages of Facebook:

I’m a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I’ve been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria…there is little I haven’t been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they ” probably don’t have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know…” and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games…that could be kiboshed too. Can you even imagine?

I’m scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I’m scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, open-mindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and “fight for yourself above all else” attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let’s meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.

Our children will thank us for it.

Dr. Abdhu Sharkawy

Exactly!!!!

 

[VictoryinJesus]

at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

“at the hands of this new scourge”, odd choice of word “scourge” Isaiah 28:15-16 Because ye have said, We have made a covenant with death, and with hell are we at agreement; when the overflowing scourge shall pass through, it shall not come unto us: for we have made lies our refuge, and under falsehood have we hid ourselves: [16] Therefore thus saith the Lord God, Behold, I lay in Zion for a foundation a stone, a tried stone, a precious corner stone, a sure foundation: he that believeth shall not make haste.

Hebrews 12:6-7 For whom the Lord loveth he chasteneth, and scourgeth every son whom he receiveth. [7] If ye endure chastening, God dealeth with you as with sons; for what son is he whom the father chasteneth not?

“for a foundation” isn’t this what we need to keep pointing to, this foundation when the flood arose, the stream beat vehemently upon that house, and could not shake it: for it was founded upon a rock. Luke 6:48

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear

”wave of fear” Luke 21:25-26 And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; [26] Men's hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.

“For looking after those things which are coming on the earth” I’ve done the same when He said to keep our eyes set on those things above, good things, pure things...Philippians 4:8 Finally, brethren, whatsoever things are true, whatsoever things are honest, whatsoever things are just, whatsoever things are pure, whatsoever things are lovely, whatsoever things are of good report; if there be any virtue, and if there be any praise, think on these things.

Gotten so many bad reports lately almost had forgotten “whatsoever things are of good report” ...think on these things!

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience

2 Peter 1:6-7 And to knowledge temperance; and to temperance patience; and to patience godliness; [7] And to godliness brotherly kindness; and to brotherly kindness charity.

 

[marks]

Gotten so many bad reports lately almost had forgotten “whatsoever things are of good report” ...think on these things!

Amen!!!

 

[reformed1689]

The FAQs: Coronavirus Explained by an Infectious Disease Expert and Pastor

 

[VictoryinJesus]

• Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the U.S. will become infected with COVID-19, NBC News reported Wednesday.
• Monahan made the comments during a closed-door meeting Tuesday that included Senate administrative office staff and personnel from both parties, but no senators, according to NBC News.

Up to 150 million Americans are expected to contract the coronavirus, congressional doctor says

At the present mortality rate, that's a bit over 1 million deaths. I think it will be a fraction of that, because the mortality rate is mostly measured on the number of infections that make on sick enough to seek medical care. I'm praying that it will be a small fraction of that, but we don't know.

tried to find your quote mentioning your back ground in immunity. Heard ten were treated with plasma from recovered patients. Is that a possibility? Plasma?

 

[Justadude]

I think the goods on ships and planes would have some people on them too.

Good point!

Was there any stock market index he didn't crash? I imagine he has leaders around the world furious with him. Is he trying to get the whole world to hate him?

Story: Global stocks plunge as coronavirus fears spread

Some are wondering if he's still angry with Europe over being laughed at at the NATO conference. There's so many holes in his measures (like how the countries with his resorts are exempt from the ban), there may be something to that idea.

 

[Giuliano]

Why? Why do us knowing those numbers matter?

Seeing how quickly South Korea responded with the ability to test so many people impressed me. The dismal numbers, when available from the CDC, says a lot about how poorly they handled things.

This is just pure speculation on your part.

You don't have to be a genius to figure it was my opinion. I stated honestly that that was how things looked to me. I didn't try to pass off my speculations as facts the way the Trump administration did.

They actually gave the reason they aren't updating those numbers. It is because it is now being handled by individual states. You can get that information from the states directly. This is not some crazed conspiracy.

That's completely bogus explanation since the job of the CDC is to coordinate efforts by states, cities and other organizations in order to get the bigger picture.

Other organizations report their numbers to the CDC. At least they're supposed to.

CDC page here: Coordination of Multiple States and Federal Agencies | Epidemic Intelligence Service | CDC

The CDC is also responsible for approving things. They were slow at approving other agencies to do their own testing for example.

Many private labs want to do coronavirus tests. But they're still facing obstacles and delays.

Until recent days, the vast majority of tests were being conducted by the CDC or public health labs, which have limited capacities. On Monday, CDC Director Robert Redfield said about 4,900 people had been tested by government labs. But there still aren't enough tests to meet demand in many parts of the country, local officials and public health experts say. (South Korea, by comparison, says it has tested more than 200,000 people since early January, with the capacity to test 15,000 people a day.)

That's why it's so critical for private labs to ramp up quickly, said Dr. John Glenn Morris, director of the Emerging Pathogens Institute at the University of Florida.

"The solution is not counting the number of test kits that CDC is distributing — it's getting the large commercial companies on board so that we can really start testing everybody that comes in," Morris said. "That's when we're going to start discovering how prevalent the virus is."

In the past week, Quest and LabCorp — two of the country's biggest clinical testing providers — began rolling out their own commercial tests to doctors and medical providers. But results typically take three to four days from the time specimens are picked up, the companies said.

Quest warned that "timing may be impacted by high demand" and that it would take weeks to ramp up testing. "We expect to be able to perform tens of thousands of tests a week within the next six weeks," the company said in a statement.

The turnaround is usually far quicker for smaller private labs and academic labs, because the testing is conducted on site instead of shipped to a central facility. Several private labs said they would be able to produce results within four hours once they were cleared to begin testing.

In other words, the bureaucracy was slow to let the both big test providers do it. They couldn't do it all by themselves but were slow to get private companies involved. The CDC appears to be slow approving the smaller private labs and the academic ones. It's bureaucratic snafus at their worst.

 

[reformed1689]

The dismal numbers, when available from the CDC, says a lot about how poorly they handled things.

Also false. You don't know how many people went in for testing.

 

[Giuliano]

Also false. You don't know how many people went in for testing.

You aren't even reading my posts, or is your mind so closed that you can read something and it doesn't register? I am assuming the number CDC Director Redfield gave was correct when he gave it.

"Until recent days, the vast majority of tests were being conducted by the CDC or public health labs, which have limited capacities. On Monday, CDC Director Robert Redfield said about 4,900 people had been tested by government labs."

That number was dismal. Now they aren't tracking the numbers, they can pretend to have nothing to be embarrassed about.

 

[reformed1689]

That number was dismal. Now they aren't tracking the numbers, they can pretend to have nothing to be embarrassed about.

And that is all conjecture on your part, not what they have actually said.

 

[Giuliano]

Good point!


Some are wondering if he's still angry with Europe over being laughed at at the NATO conference. There's so many holes in his measures (like how the countries with his resorts are exempt from the ban), there may be something to that idea.

Could it be because of his resorts? Or is he trying to cause more problems between the UK and the EU?

What is strange is the British government is also being criticized for its inadequate response. The British response may be worse than the American.

Number of British people being tested for coronavirus falls amid growing anger at government response

Numbers taken from the official government website, and assembled by the Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, show the numbers of people being tested is yet to increase as the virus spreads.

That is despite the fact that almost every day over the last week has seen an unprecedented rise in the number of people actually testing positive for COVID-19.

John Ashton, the former regional director of Public Health England, has said the lack of testing could help the disease spread more quickly.

“I’m tearing my hair out really, with this," he told Newsnight.

“I want to know why we are not testing, why we haven’t tested those people coming back from Italy and who are now amongst us. We’ve got a recipe for community spread here."

If Ashton is right, it seems pointless to forbid travel from the EU and not the UK. I think maybe Trump is having a "nervous breakdown."

 

[Giuliano]

And that is all conjecture on your part, not what they have actually said.

If you don't believe what the director of the CDC told a Congressional committee, you don't. It was reported in more than one place. It's a matter of public record.

CDC's Redfield: 4,856 people tested for coronavirus in U.S. public health labs

Around 4,900 people had been tested for coronavirus in U.S. public health labs as of Monday, Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a congressional hearing on Tuesday.

That number does not include Americans who have been tested in clinical or private labs, he said.

Redfield said that as of Monday, private companies Laboratory Corp of America and Quest Diagnostics have enough coronavirus tests available that any U.S. doctor’s office who uses those companies can have their patients tested.

Up until Monday few tests were done by private companies. The number would be higher than 4,900 but not much.

Some Republicans in Congress are getting fed up too. I'll cite the conservative National Review.

GOP Lawmakers Express Frustration with President Trump, C.D.C. over Coronavirus Testing Capabilities | National Review

Senator James Lankford (R., Ok.) on Thursday said President Trump “should stop saying” that anyone who wants to be tested for the Wuhan coronavirus can get tested.

“That is not accurate right now,” Lankford told CNN. “People should stop saying if you want a test, you should get a test right now. That’s not here at this point”. . . .

“We have a serious deficiency in being prepared for testing,” Senator Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) said. “South Korea, for example, is doing a better job. We not only need a better system for later. We need a better system for now, and we’re going to focus on that as rapidly as we can.”

Between this fiasco and Trump's threatened veto of the bill passed by both the House and Senate to stop him taking more action against Iran, I think some Republicans are really getting tired of trying to pretend Trump is sane.